20
2020
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08
Spring in the shipping industry? Shipping confidence index increases!
Confidence in the shipping industry has risen over the past three months, according to BDO's latest shipping confidence survey, in spite of a series of geopolitical and trade disputes that have created uncertainty for many industries.
Feedback from respondents showed an average confidence level of 6.2 out of 10, up from 6.0 in the fourth quarter of 2018. Specifically, confidence in Europe rose to 6.3 from 6.1 and in North America to 5.6 from 5.2. But the news is not positive everywhere.
Regionally, Europe and North America saw gains, rising to 6.3 and 5.6 from 6.1 and 5.2, respectively. In Asia, it fell to 5.8 from a 12-month high of 6.3 in the previous quarter.
Much of the credit for the growth in confidence goes to shipbrokers. Their score rose from 5.2 to 5.9. The ratings of shipowners and managers fell slightly from 6.4 and 6.0 to 6.3 and 5.8 respectively. Tenant confidence also declined from 6.8 to 6.0, but was still higher than the 5.0 recorded 12 months ago.
Confidence is up, investment is down
Respondents' likelihood of making major investments and developments in the next 12 months dropped from 5.5 to 5.3 points. Europe rose to 5.3 from 5.2, while Asia fell to 6.2 from 6.2.
Rate confidence is positive
Fifty-one percent of respondents expect rates to rise in the tanker market over the next 12 months. That's down 9 percentage points from 60 percent in the previous survey.
In the dry bulk sector, those who thought rates would rise rose strongly from 38 per cent to 52 per cent, while those who thought rates would fall rose by 4-5 per cent. In the container sector, 26 per cent expect rates to rise, while those expecting rates to fall for container ships rose from 23 per cent to 25 per cent.
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